US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index fell below 101.00 on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected inflation data suggested that President Trump's recently implemented tariffs had only a modest impact. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price inflation slowed to 2.3% in April, the lowest level since February 2021 and slightly below the market's expectations of 2.4%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in March, but still falling short of the expected 0.3% increase. Core inflation remained at 2.8% year-on-year, a four-year low. The market also continued to weigh the impact of the temporary removal of some tariffs following the U.S.-China agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said he plans to meet with Chinese officials again in the coming weeks to begin discussions on a broader trade deal. The reduction in tariffs has sparked optimism for the dollar, which had been under pressure earlier due to concerns that President Trump's trade policies have reduced the attractiveness of U.S. assets.

The U.S. Dollar Index flashed a bullish signal and traded just below 102.00, hitting a one-month high. The index is currently at 100.97, currently in the middle area between the strong support of 100.47{20-day simple moving average} and the key resistance near 102.30{55-day simple moving average}. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart technical indicators fell back to around 51.90, indicating a neutral to weak state, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) flashed a buy signal, showing positive momentum. The long-short power close to 2.00 and the 80s stochastic %K confirmed the neutral to bullish sentiment. The short-term moving averages support buyers, and the immediate support is at 100.45{30-day simple moving average}, and 100.00{market psychological level}. As for resistance, it points to the key obstacle area near 101.36.00{40-day simple moving average}, and 101.81{Tuesday's high}}.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 101.10, stop loss: 101.20, target: 100.60, 100.50

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil futures rose to $63.22 per barrel on Tuesday, rising for the fourth consecutive trading day, testing the highest level in more than a month, influenced by the threat of new sanctions on Iran and the improved outlook for global trade flows. In a speech to Saudi officials, US President Trump reiterated his threat to impose sanctions on Iranian oil if they do not agree to the nuclear deal. In turn, concerns about widespread economic pain eased after the United States and China agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs between each other. However, there is still uncertainty about what will happen after the 90-day ceasefire period ends. The rebound in futures is still happening despite Saudi Arabia's push to increase oil production and punish member countries that fail to meet production targets. OPEC's total production has exceeded expectations since April, and production in May may increase by 411,000 barrels per day. Oil prices are still down 10% since early April, when U.S. reciprocal tariffs sparked concerns about weak global growth and reduced fuel demand.

U.S. WTI crude oil rose to $63.48 per barrel at the beginning of the week, both hitting their highest closing levels since April 28. But after the surge, it fell again on Tuesday and is still in a range. From a technical perspective, the daily chart of U.S. crude oil (WTI) shows that the current price has successfully broken through the upper edge of the previous range of fluctuations, forming a bullish trend structure in the short term. The price has stood firmly above the psychological market barrier of $60 and closed above the 14-day {59.92} and 20-day {60.69} simple moving averages for consecutive days, indicating that bullish momentum has increased. At the same time, the red column of the MACD indicator has expanded, and the fast line is higher than the slow line, supporting the judgment of continued rise. If the market can maintain the support level of $60.69 (20-day simple moving average) and $60.00 (market psychological level), the next target will be $63.48 (Monday high), and the high point of the year near $64.50 will be seen; but if it falls below $61.61 (30-day simple moving average), the short-term rally may face the risk of a correction. The next level is $59.37 (10-day simple moving average).

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil near 63.00, stop loss: 62.80; target: 64.50; 64.70

Spot gold

Gold prices broke through $3,250 an ounce on Tuesday as investors bought gold after a sharp drop in the previous trading day. Gold fell 2.7% on Monday as a major easing of the Sino-US trade war boosted risk appetite and weakened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Behind this sudden sell-off is the dramatic easing of Sino-US trade tensions. When safe-haven assets encounter a surge in risk appetite, the fuse of this sell-off points directly to the warming of Sino-US trade relations. The joint statement on Sino-US trade released on Monday showed that the two sides agreed to significantly reduce the punitive tariffs imposed on each other: the US tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145% to 30%, and China's tariffs on US goods were reduced from 125% to 10%. This 90-day "truce agreement" far exceeded market expectations and directly extinguished investors' safe-haven demand. The long-short game in the gold market is entering New phase.

Gold prices traded in a negative direction on Tuesday. According to the daily chart, the constructive outlook for the precious metal remains intact with the price holding above the key 50-day simple moving average of $3,144.70. However, further consolidation or a temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out as the technical indicator 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is below the midline {around 48.80}. On the positive side, the first upside resistance to watch is $3,280.60, which is the 25-day simple moving average. If the price continues to buy above this level, it may pave the way for a move towards $3,300 (a psychological level in the market). Higher resistance is seen at the early week high of $3,324. In the bearish scenario, the psychological level of $3,200 acts as an initial support for the gold/dollar pair. Further downside targets appear at $3,144.70 {50-day simple moving average}, and $3,142 {April 2 high} area levels.

Consider going long on gold today before 3,245, stop loss: 3,240; target: 3,270; 3,275

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rebounded against the greenback on Tuesday after the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2% month-on-month to 92.1, recouping last month's 6.0% decline, marking the third increase this year. The pair had weakened as the United States and China reached a preliminary agreement after productive trade talks in Switzerland. Under the agreement, the United States will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% - a move widely seen as a major step in easing trade tensions. Australia, which has deep trade ties with China, , which is particularly sensitive to changes in Sino-US relations. The easing of global trade tensions has also led investors to reduce expectations for aggressive domestic interest rate cuts. The market now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce the cash rate by the end of the year.

On Tuesday, AUD/USD hovered around 0.6460. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows a bearish outlook, with the currency pair trading above the 10-day simple moving average of 0.6426. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator, although at 58.10, further reinforces the bearish sentiment in the short term. The pair may test 0.6400{round mark}, Initial support near the 25-day simple moving average of 0.6380. A break above this level could strengthen the bearish bias and open the door for a decline towards 0.6300 {market psychological barrier}. On the upside, AUD/USD may retest the 250-day simple moving average of 0.6493 and may revisit 0.6500 {round number barrier}, and the six-month high of 0.6515 set on December 2, 2024.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6450, stop loss: 0.6440, target: 0.6510, 0.6530

GBP/USD

GBP/USD fell at the start of the week, falling just over 1%, pushing the pair back below the 1.3200 mark following a broad recovery in the US dollar. GBP/USD climbed close to 1.3300 on Tuesday. GBP/USD edged higher on positive developments in the US-UK trade deal last week. The US and China agreed in preliminary trade talks over the weekend to temporarily suspend steep triple-digit tariffs, giving markets some breathing room before the US's bizarre "reciprocal" tariff scheme is set to come back into effect in 90 days. As the dollar strengthened on news that the US and China agreed to slash tariffs, the pound weakened to close to $1.3, its lowest level since April 11. US President Trump and British Prime Minister Starmer finalized a long-awaited deal last week to eliminate non-tariff barriers in the UK, speed up customs clearance of US goods, and provide protection for the UK's automotive and steel industries.

Early this week, GBP/USD's rebound paused due to the optimistic news from the US, targeting the 50-day simple moving average of 1.3092. A daily close below the low of 1.3170 on May 13, and 1.3162 {34-day simple moving average} may pave the way for the pair's decline and trigger new bearish momentum to 1.3100 {round mark}, and 1.300 {50-day simple moving average}. But if the data remains the same, the catalyst may keep GBP/USD at the current level. On the other hand, if the pair rises above 1.3300 {market psychological mark}, the next resistance will be 1.3381, the high of May 8, and 1.3400 {round mark} area.

Today, it is recommended to go long GBP before 1.3290, stop loss: 1.3275, target: 1.3350, 1.3360

USD/JPY

USD/JPY retreated after rising more than 2% in the previous session, trading around 147.50 during the American session on Tuesday. The pair depreciated as the yen strengthened despite continued uncertainty about the Bank of Japan's interest rate outlook. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida acknowledged both upside and downside risks from potential US tariffs, noting that such measures could weigh on the Japanese economy. He added that Japan's economic growth is expected to slow to its potential growth rate and then gradually recover as overseas economies rebound. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato commented on Tuesday on the possibility of a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant to discuss foreign exchange matters as well as ongoing tariff negotiations. He reiterated that Japan will closely monitor US-China tariff discussions, although he did not comment on currency levels. The summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on April 30-May 1 highlighted continued uncertainty as a key concern.

USD/JPY gave a bullish signal at the start of the week, gaining 2% and approaching the top of its intraday range (145.38–148.65). The pair retreated slightly on Tuesday, The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicators on the daily chart is around 58, indicating a neutral state, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) shows buying momentum. Further confirming the neutral momentum, the bull-bear power is trading around 5, and the strong oscillator also shows a neutral state. The 20-day simple moving average of 143.68 supports the buy signal, while the 100-day simple moving average of 150.29 suggests selling, reflecting a mixed long-term outlook. At this stage, key support levels are around 146.84 {60-day simple moving average}, 146.00 {round number}, and 145.37 {early week low}, while resistance levels are around 148.65 {early week high}, 149.00 {round number}, and 150.00 {market psychological level}. A break above 150.00 may suggest further gains and may open the door to deeper gains.

Today's recommendation is Short USD before 147.75, Stop Loss: 148.00; Target: 146.50, 146.30

EUR/USD

EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, trading close to the 1.1200 area, reflecting strong bullish sentiment, which the market showed as it approached the Asian session. Price action remained at the top of the intraday range, indicating that buyers are still in control of the market despite mixed momentum readings. The broader technical picture remains positive, with multiple long-term moving averages reinforcing the overall uptrend. This follows a loss of more than 2.5% in the previous trading day. The pair faces challenges as the US dollar strengthens on the backdrop of progress in US-China trade talks. The US and China are in a state of trade tensions over the weekend. Switzerland reached a preliminary agreement to significantly reduce tariffs, signaling a possible de-escalation in trade tensions. Under the agreement, the United States will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The development was positively received by the market and is seen as a step towards stabilizing global trade relations. Meanwhile, the euro remains under pressure amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank may extend its monetary easing cycle.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD presents a mixed but overall positive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49.89 range, indicating a balance of momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) still gives a sell signal, suggesting potential short-term resistance. Meanwhile, the Bulls-Bears Power indicator supports a buying bias, strengthening the bullish argument. While the Stochastic %K is close to 16, giving a clear buy signal, indicating the potential for further gains. The broader trend structure is supported by key moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages are all in line with the buying sentiment, reinforcing the potential uptrend. Support levels are clustered at 1.1100{round mark}, 1.1072{50-day simple moving average}, and 1.0951{Tuesday's low}. Resistance levels are at 1.1230{25-day simple moving average}, 1.1250 and 1.1300{round mark}. A sustained break above the immediate resistance range could confirm a broader breakout, while a break below the support could trigger a short-term correction that could test the lower limit of the recent range.

Today's recommendation is 1.1175 Go long on Euro before, stop loss: 1.1160, target: 1.1230, 1.1250.

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