Oil prices rebounded Friday after three consecutive sessions of losses, as uncertainty surrounding Iran peace negotiations revived concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East.

International benchmark Brent crude climbed back above the $104 level during early Asian trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also advanced sharply as traders reassessed the likelihood of a near-term resolution to the Iran conflict.

Earlier optimism had emerged after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were entering their “final stages.” However, sentiment shifted after reports indicated that Iran’s leadership intends to keep its near-weapons-grade enriched uranium inside the country rather than transferring it abroad, raising doubts over whether a peace agreement can be finalized soon.

According to Reuters, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei directed that enriched uranium stockpiles remain within Iranian territory. The development fueled market fears that tensions in the region could persist, prolonging disruptions to energy supply routes and keeping oil markets tight.

Investors are also increasingly focused on the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Before the conflict began in late February, roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the waterway. Ongoing instability in the region continues to threaten shipping flows and raise transportation risks.

The International Energy Agency warned that global oil markets may soon enter a “red zone” as summer travel demand accelerates while inventories continue to decline. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be the most effective solution to easing the energy shock caused by the conflict, adding that developing economies in Asia and Africa are likely to suffer the most from rising energy costs.

Meanwhile, analysts at MUFG noted that energy executives expect a full normalization of Middle East oil supply may not happen until 2027 due to the scale of disruptions created by the war. The prolonged uncertainty has reinforced bullish sentiment across the oil market, with traders closely watching both geopolitical developments and supply conditions heading into the peak summer demand season.

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