The Federal Reserve had a busy week. At the start of the week, the Fed inquired with banks about their USD/JPY positions, fueling speculation that the US might be preparing to cooperate with Japan to address the yen's weakness. This news triggered a sharp sell-off in the dollar early in the week.

Midweek, the Fed held its monetary policy meeting. The central bank kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with expectations. Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference focused on politics, Powell's future, and subpoenas, to which he did not respond. On the positive side, Powell emphasized a clear improvement in economic growth and a reduction in inflation and employment-related risks.

The dollar index traded slightly above 97, almost recovering all of the week's losses after US President Trump finalized his nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman on Friday. Meanwhile, the US will release the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) January Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), MBA mortgage applications, Challenger job cuts data for January, and initial jobless claims next week.

Last Week's Market Performance Recap:

Despite investor general acceptance of President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, US stocks still fell on Friday (January 30th) amid continued weakness in tech stocks and a "stampede" sell-off in precious metals. Market volatility has intensified significantly this month, but the S&P 500 is still on track for a modest monthly gain in January. The S&P 500 fell 0.44% to close at 6,939.03, marking its third consecutive day of decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 179 points, or 0.36%, to close at 48,892.47. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite underperformed the broader market, falling 0.94% to close at 23,461.82. All three major indexes fell by more than 1% at their intraday lows.

The spot gold market was like a runaway horse. Gold prices surged at the beginning of last week, driven by both safe-haven demand and policy expectations, reaching an all-time high of $5,598.90 during Thursday's European session. However, the script reversed dramatically in the early hours of Friday. News of President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a surge in tightening expectations. Spot gold plummeted over 9.5% in a single day, briefly falling below $4,800. The weekly swings reached hundreds of dollars, erasing all gains from the previous three days and leaving a highly damaging "bearish engulfing" pattern on the technical charts.

Before the end of last week, the silver market experienced a panic sell-off, with spot silver prices falling by over 36% at one point during the afternoon session. This futures drop is on track to be the largest single-day percentage decline since March 27, 1980, marking the most severe single-day plunge in 46 years. The main drivers of this crash were profit-taking, speculative position liquidation, and long position reductions, with investors aggressively selling off silver positions.

Last week, traders' reaction to the 96.41 level will determine the intraday tone of the dollar index on Friday, but the core trend will still be dominated by the outcome of Trump's nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair. If the moderately hawkish Warsh is successfully nominated, it could put upward pressure on the dollar, supporting short-term bullish expectations. Looking at the daily chart, the downward trend of the dollar index remains unchanged. However, since hitting a high of 99.49 on January 15, the index has fallen sharply in just eight trading days to a low of 95.56 on January 27, a drop of nearly 4%, and is currently oversold. After hitting the low, the dollar index entered a consolidation phase, with bulls and bears temporarily at an impasse.

The euro/dollar pair has fallen back into its downward trend, down 0.75%, breaking below the 1.1900 support level, as the dollar's rebound continues to gain momentum. In fact, the dollar's upward momentum accelerated after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor and US producer prices rose more than expected in December. The USD/JPY pair jumped on hawkish signals from the US dollar and the nomination of Walsh. The pair rebounded to around 154.75 on Friday, up 0.90% on the day, benefiting from the dollar's recovery after weeks of weakness. This move comes as markets reassess the outlook for monetary policy in the US and Japan.

The GBP/USD pair retreated further, threatening 1.3650, with selling pressure continuing to rise, dragging the pair back to near its three-day low of around 1.3678-1.3680 at the weekend. The pound's pullback reflects the strong dollar rebound as investors digested Trump's announcement regarding the next Fed chair. Last week, the AUD/USD pair retreated from a three-year high amid a dollar recovery. The AUD/USD traded around 0.6965 on Friday, down more than 1% on the day, after retreating from a three-year high reached earlier this week. Thus, the pair ended a three-day winning streak due to a technical correction and a modest recovery in dollar support.

Bitcoin's bear market is grinding to a bottom, and it will test the 83,000 support level. Last week, Bitcoin's price remained near the key on-chain cost price, and this support level is being tested. Sufficient market confidence is needed to prevent further structural weakness. Short-term holders are emotionally vulnerable. If the price fails to rise above the key break-even point, recent buyers may face renewed selling pressure.

The US 10-year Treasury yield exceeded 4.25% on Friday, maintaining its gains for the week after President Trump announced that former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh would become the next Fed Chair. At the beginning of the week, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and made balanced comments, pointing out risks on both sides of its dual mandate. Interest rate futures indicate the market is betting on two rate cuts by the Fed.

Market Outlook for This Week: This week (February 2nd-February 6th), global markets will see a series of important economic data releases, including manufacturing and services PMIs, interest rate decisions from multiple central banks, and the US non-farm payroll report. Central bank policy moves and core employment indicators are intertwined, and each data point and event could trigger significant short-term market volatility.

Japan will release a summary of its Monetary Policy Committee's comments this week, indicating that it will maintain interest rates unchanged in January. This summary could provide insights into the internal divisions within the central bank regarding interest rate policy, offering important policy clues for the short-term movement of the yen.

Meanwhile, the focus this week is on the US non-farm payrolls report released on Friday (February 6th).

Regarding the risks this week:

Risk Warning: Investors should plan ahead to mitigate potential risks and opportunities.

In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks:

First, if the official Chinese and global SPGI manufacturing and services PMIs deviate significantly from market expectations, it could trigger valuation adjustments in equity markets and volatility in global commodity markets. The upcoming earnings season in the US stock market could also exacerbate equity market volatility.

Second, if the Eurozone and Bank of England interest rate decisions and speeches by Fed officials release unexpected policy signals, it could quickly correct market expectations, causing sharp short-term fluctuations in corresponding currencies.

Third, the nomination of the new Fed chairman, the performance of the US non-farm payroll report and other employment data will directly affect expectations for the Fed's monetary policy decisions. Geopolitical issues, such as those involving Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and Greenland, will also play a role, as their development will dominate the movement of the US dollar and global risk assets.

This Week's Conclusion:

The first week of February will follow the unusual trends in global markets so far this year, recently marked by unprecedented volatility in the metals market and concerns about a depreciating dollar, while US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its key employment report, while the Job Openings and Labor Mobility Survey (JOLTS), the ADP report, and the Challenger report will provide further insights into the labor market. On the corporate front, Alphabet and Amazon will continue their earnings calls for the "Big Seven" companies, while AMD, Palantir, and Qualcomm will update investors on speculative AI investments.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will set new policy rates, and the Eurozone will release its inflation data. In Asia, China's official and broader Purchasing Managers' Indices will be in focus.

Japan Quietly Buys; The Hidden Battle of Funds Behind the Yen's Rebound

Recently, signals of joint intervention in the foreign exchange market between the U.S. and Japan have continued to emerge. Coupled with rising speculative sentiment in the market regarding unilateral intervention by Japanese authorities and the lead of large Japanese trading companies in purchasing Japanese government bonds, the yen has experienced a strong upward trend, becoming a core trading instrument in the foreign exchange market.

Anticipated Intervention as the Core Driver; Yen Experiences Strong Rebound

The core driver of the yen's recent appreciation was the anticipated intervention through window guidance, with multiple positive news factors jointly propelling the yen's significant rebound. The formal commencement of joint exchange rate intervention negotiations between the US and Japan immediately made the Korean won and the yen the biggest beneficiaries in the foreign exchange market, with the yen performing particularly well.

Simultaneously, the New York Federal Reserve proactively surveyed several core financial institutions regarding yen market liquidity and trading conditions. This action further strengthened market expectations of intervention, directly triggering a sharp short-term rise in the yen.

Behind the Intervention Negotiations: Multiple Backgrounds and Uncertainties in Implementation

This round of US-Japan foreign exchange market intervention negotiations was not without precedent. It stems from the current structural characteristics of the global foreign exchange market—the dollar is overvalued, the US trade deficit persists, while Asian currencies are generally undervalued, and related economies are continuously engaging in trade surplus recycling.

Previously, the market had hotly debated reaching an agreement similar to the Plaza Accord, such as the Mar-a-Lago Agreement, attempting to adjust the dollar's exchange rate against Asian currencies. However, this proposal ultimately failed to proceed due to international opposition and a lack of clear implementation strategies.

Currently, there are no clear signals indicating that the recent US-Japan talks have broken the previous deadlock. Whether the yen's rebound signifies a deep revaluation of its exchange rate from its lows, and whether it can re-enter a correlation with the US-Japan government bond yield spread, remains to be seen and requires further market verification.

Meanwhile, the shared concern about the yen's depreciation by both the US and Japan has become a key theme of the talks: Japanese officials have expressed clear concern about the yen's continued depreciation, and US Treasury Secretary Bessenter has publicly urged the Bank of Japan to accelerate its monetary policy tightening process to alleviate the pressure on the yen's depreciation.

Even with multiple factors driving the US-Japan talks, the implementation of joint intervention remains highly uncertain.

Joint US-Japan intervention is not currently the benchmark trading expectation. The last time the two countries conducted joint foreign exchange market intervention was in the special market conditions of March 2011. Under the current market circumstances, the actual probability of joint intervention needs careful assessment. However, the previous public statement by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group that it would begin purchasing Japanese government bonds now appears to be a signal that large Japanese funds are still buying Japanese assets, increasing the certainty of the yen's rebound.

Conclusion:

As previously mentioned, the Japanese yen is poised for a turnaround. Major Japanese financial companies have begun purchasing Japanese government bonds, indicating that resource assets are beginning to show value. Coupled with the high probability of Japan providing window guidance, there may be an opportunity for yen appreciation, which has recently seen a rapid increase.

Technically, the middle line of the upward channel is a key resistance level, with support near the dotted line and the psychological level of 150.

The real test for gold: perhaps not how much it has risen, but who can hold on after such a rapid rise.

Gold traded above $5,000 last week, briefly touching $5,111, setting a new all-time high, with a strong and sustained upward trend. This indicates extremely active buying in the market. Despite the significant short-term gains, there have been no obvious signs of a pullback; instead, it continues to expand upwards under the combined influence of multiple factors. The core driver of this round of gains is not a single event, but a systemic safe-haven market driven by geopolitical tensions, increased policy uncertainty, and a weakening dollar.

Among these factors, the Russia-Ukraine situation remains the focus of market attention. Despite extensive communication, the conflict has not subsided; in fact, it has escalated during negotiations. This "fighting while negotiating" situation makes it difficult for traders to predict future trends, and the risk premium for safe havens continues to rise. Against this backdrop, funds tend to allocate to non-credit assets for hedging, with gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, naturally becoming the first choice. Even though relevant dialogues are scheduled to resume on February 1st, market caution is unlikely to dissipate quickly in the absence of a clear solution.

Policy shifts and reshaping of interest rate expectations usher in a "golden period" for gold.

Besides geopolitical risks, the reversals in macroeconomic policies have significantly amplified market volatility. Recently, the US has frequently released strong signals on trade issues, and its previously softened tariff stance has changed again. While such extreme statements may not be implemented immediately, they are enough to undermine the confidence of businesses and traders in the stability of regulations. This "policy jump" pattern weakens the certainty of financial markets, thereby increasing demand for safe havens.

At the same time, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path are undergoing a significant shift. The current market consensus is that at least two additional interest rate cuts are expected this year. This rising expectation has directly pressured the dollar and lowered the outlook for real interest rates. For gold, real interest rates are considered a key indicator of the opportunity cost of holding assets—when real interest rates decline, the attractiveness of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, increases. Especially in an environment where inflation expectations remain sticky, a decline in nominal interest rates will further compress the space for real interest rates, providing medium-term support for gold prices.

The dollar index has thus fallen to a multi-month low, enhancing the purchasing power of dollar-denominated gold globally. The combination of strong gold and a weak dollar has occurred many times in history, and this time it is driven by monetary policy repricing.

Policy shifts and reshaping of interest rate expectations usher in a "golden age" for gold.

Besides geopolitical risks, the fluctuations in macroeconomic policies have significantly amplified market volatility. Recently, the US has frequently released tough signals on trade issues, with its previously eased tariff stance changing again, and even threats of imposing 100% tariffs on Canada emerging. While such extreme statements may not be implemented immediately, they are enough to undermine businesses' and traders' confidence in the stability of regulations, raising concerns about uncertainty in the future business environment. This "policy jump" pattern weakens certainty in financial markets, thereby increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

Meanwhile, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path are undergoing a significant shift. Currently, traders are widely betting on at least two additional rate cuts this year. This rising expectation has directly pressured the dollar and lowered the outlook for real interest rates. For gold, real interest rates are considered a key indicator of the opportunity cost of holding assets—when real interest rates decline, the attractiveness of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, increases. Especially in an environment where inflation expectations remain sticky, a decline in nominal interest rates will further compress the space for real interest rates, providing medium-term support for gold prices.

The dollar index has thus fallen to a multi-month low, enhancing the purchasing power of dollar-denominated gold globally. The combination of strong gold and a weak dollar has occurred many times in history, and this time it is driven by the repricing of monetary policy. However, it's worth noting that Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be a key juncture. The market will closely watch the Fed Chairman's views on inflation and employment data, especially whether he will release clearer signals of easing.

The dollar's fundamentals haven't collapsed, but the market has already reacted in advance.

Despite the soaring gold price, the economic fundamentals are not as pessimistic as the dollar's performance suggests. The US third-quarter GDP growth reached 4.4%, indicating continued economic resilience; weekly initial jobless claims remained near historical lows, the labor market remained tight, and the unemployment rate did not show a significant increase. These data should theoretically support a high dollar and interest rates, which would be unfavorable for gold.

However, financial markets often anticipate the future rather than reflect the present. Currently, traders are more concerned about "potential risks" than "actual recessions." The potential spillover of geopolitical conflicts, the escalation of trade frictions, and the delayed policy shift—these "possibilities" form the basis of the safe-haven logic. Therefore, even with current positive data, the market is willing to position itself defensively in advance. This explains why gold has already entered a strong uptrend before the economy has stalled.

Furthermore, some interest rate futures indicate that the market has already postponed the next fully priced-in rate cut to around the July meeting. This means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust interest rates in the short term, and its rhetoric may lean towards caution, emphasizing "data dependence" and a "wait-and-see attitude," and may even release slightly hawkish signals. If this happens, the dollar could see a technical rebound, while gold may face short-term profit-taking pressure and experience high-level consolidation.

Technical warning signs are flashing; the trend remains unchanged, but caution is advised when chasing highs.

From a technical chart perspective, gold prices are currently in a strong upward trend. The MACD indicator shows all indicators in bullish territory, reflecting strong medium-term momentum. The key support level is around $4,800-$4,830, which is not only a theoretical retracement area after the previous breakout but also considered an important risk control line for trend traders. As long as the price can hold this level during a pullback and stabilize again, the overall upward structure will remain intact. However, another indicator, the RSI, has clearly entered overbought territory, suggesting that short-term prices are moving too fast, and the risk of chasing highs is accumulating. Historically, similar situations have often been accompanied by rapid consolidation or pullbacks after sharp rises.

Conclusion:

In summary, the current gold price surge is driven by three main factors: geopolitical risks, policy uncertainty, and a weak dollar. In the short term, if the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals or market sentiment temporarily recovers, gold prices may experience increased volatility or even a pullback. However, as long as global uncertainty remains largely unresolved and easing expectations are not disproven, gold is likely to maintain its overall upward trend. The real test may not be how much it has risen, but rather who can hold onto their position after such a rapid rise.

The dollar faces both crisis and opportunity; why has the dollar fallen into a deep abyss?

The dollar index opened sharply lower at the beginning of the week and then consolidated. Trump stated over the weekend that the agreement between Canada and China was detrimental to Canada, and that if Canada and China reached such an agreement, the US would immediately impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods entering the US. Increased concerns about US-China trade issues and the Trump administration's aggressive measures have been the direct trigger for the recent sell-off of US assets, with the dollar, as a core US financial instrument, bearing the brunt of the weakening pressure.

Coupled with Trump's lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the traditional safe-haven appeal of US assets has significantly weakened, triggering a chain reaction:

Meanwhile, the recent sharp appreciation of the yen, influenced by clear window guidance from the Japanese government and the US, is also a major reason for the dollar's decline.

Trade issues may escalate, putting pressure on both the dollar and US stocks.

Trump's public statements and recent aggressive actions by the US government, from geopolitical, monetary, and economic intervention perspectives, have continuously suppressed the dollar's performance, leaving its recovery without effective support.

Escalating tariffs and high geopolitical risks have pushed up global market risk premiums, and as the core source of risk and a direct participant in these events, the safe-haven appeal of the US currency has naturally decreased significantly.

Against the backdrop of high economic growth and high inflation, the US government continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which is likely to push up long-term interest rates, making it much more difficult to refinance the $10 trillion in US government debt maturing this year. The dual pressure of fiscal and debt burdens further weakens the dollar's credibility.

US and Japan jointly intervened in the yen, causing a sharp appreciation of the yen and negatively impacting the dollar.

Following news that the monetary authorities of Japan and the US had implemented a "currency inquiry" to intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to correct the yen's depreciation, overseas markets saw a surge in yen purchases and dollar sales. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated on Sunday that the government would take necessary measures against "speculative or highly abnormal market movements." This statement comes amid recent sharp fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate and the government bond market, raising high alert in the market for potential government intervention.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the government is prepared to work closely with the government and, if necessary, will stabilize yields through emergency bond purchases. Market volatility has also become a key issue in the election, with the opposition party suggesting using the central bank's ETF holdings and foreign exchange reserves to support tax cuts, but the ruling coalition is taking a cautious approach.

US Treasury Secretary Bessenter previously stated in Davos that the US is maintaining communication with Japanese economic officials and expects Japan to take action to calm the market, indicating that the two countries are strengthening coordination on financial stability. The current intertwined weakness of the yen and pressure in the bond market presents a serious challenge for Japanese policymakers.

Depreciation Becomes a Structural Trend, Weakening the Safe-Haven Logic of the Dollar

From an exchange rate perspective, the dollar's depreciation is no longer a short-term fluctuation but exhibits clear structural characteristics. Over the past year, the dollar has depreciated by more than 11% against the euro, a figure that directly confirms that the core logic of the "American exceptionalism" supporting the dollar is gradually being eroded.

Current US policy actions are riddled with contradictions, becoming the core reason for the weakening of the dollar's safe-haven appeal: on the one hand, it openly questions international law and attempts to interfere with the independence of core domestic financial institutions such as the Federal Reserve, shaking market perceptions of the stability of the US financial system; on the other hand, it ignores its high fiscal deficit of around 6%, making fiscal imbalance a fatal weakness in the US economy. Furthermore, the withdrawal of the US's AAA credit rating by the three major rating agencies has further exacerbated market concerns about the creditworthiness of dollar assets.

These multiple factors combined have led global capital to fundamentally doubt the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, providing the fundamental support for the continued pressure on the dollar index.

Short-term policy buffer exists, but the long-term downward trend is difficult to reverse.

In the short term, the approaching US midterm elections in November pose a significant policy constraint for the Trump administration. To appease the market and garner investor support, it is highly likely that it will temporarily suspend aggressive policies. The initial compromise on the Greenland issue briefly eased the pressure of selling US Treasury bonds, leading to a temporary recovery in the dollar index.

However, this short-term buffer has not changed the long-term weakening trend of the dollar, and the diversification of global capital allocation continues to intensify.

Even though the innovation capabilities of US companies and the depth of the US stock market remain attractive, making it difficult for investors to completely abandon them, the trading inertia of "buying US assets on dips" can only drive a short-term rebound in the dollar index, failing to change its core weakening fundamentals.

The inherent perception of the dollar as a "stabilizing anchor" has structurally eroded its safe-haven foundation. If the US cannot fundamentally correct its fiscal imbalances, stop excessive market intervention, and ease geopolitical tensions, the long-term downward pressure on the dollar index is a foregone conclusion, and the diversification of global capital allocation will become the long-term main theme of foreign exchange market trading around the dollar index.

Conclusion:

A weaker dollar is beneficial to almost all asset classes, especially minor metals and precious metals. However, given the long-term weakening trend coupled with short-term overselling, it may be necessary to pay more attention to short-term clues related to the dollar index.

Recently, talk of selling the dollar has been intensifying, but I believe that the main reason for the dollar's decline in the last two trading days is the recent concerns about foreign trade and the impact of the Japanese yen.

Currently, technical analysis shows that the dollar index has fallen into a key support zone, and it is highly likely that the dollar index will rebound after a period of consolidation.

Geopolitical Crisis: The Iranian Storm Supports a Surge in Oil Prices

At the end of January 2026, the US-Iran geopolitical "storm" (Trump administration military threats + Iran's tough response + US aircraft carrier deployment) ignited market panic about oil supply disruptions, pushing Brent crude oil above $70/barrel and WTI above $66/barrel, with a cumulative increase of over 14% in January, reaching a new high since September last year. The core logic is the pricing of Iranian production and the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the resonance of safe-haven flows and a weakening dollar. The core trigger for the "Iran storm" (January 28-29, 2026): Trump's escalating military threats: He warned Iran that if it did not reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, it would face a strike "far more severe than the one that struck Soleimani"; he announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Middle East, stating that the fleet was "ready."

Iran's strong countermeasures: The president initiated emergency measures to ensure the livelihoods of the people and the operation of the government; the Revolutionary Guard stated that "closing the Strait of Hormuz is one of the options," exacerbating concerns about shipping disruptions.

Immediate market reaction: Brent crude oil broke through $70/barrel during trading on the 29th, with a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $3-4/barrel being priced in; institutions predict further escalation or a push to $72/barrel.

Key Market Observations:

**Is the Conflict Substantial?** The probability ladder from verbal standoff to limited military strikes to full-scale conflict determines the sustainability of the premium. Historically, "short-term, quick-recovery" trades often result in a surge followed by a decline, while a prolonged blockade could push prices below $100/barrel.

**Strait of Hormuz Dynamics:** Shipping insurance rates (such as war risk insurance), tanker diversions, and US/Saudi escort actions are real-time signals.

**OPEC+ and IEA Responses:** The IEA estimates a supply surplus of 3.85 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, which may limit price increases. Whether the OPEC+ meeting in March adjusts its production increase plan (currently leaning towards maintaining a pause) will affect the medium-term balance.

**Strategic Reserve Release:** If the US releases reserves or coordinates with allies to release reserves, it can temporarily quell panic; however, it is unlikely to offset the impact of a Straits blockade.

**Oil Price Scenario Forecast:**

**Baseline Scenario (Standoff Does Not Escalate):** The premium declines, WTI fluctuates between $65 and $70/barrel, and some of the January gains are reversed.

Escalation Scenario (Limited Strikes): The premium widens to $5-8/barrel, with WTI reaching $72-75/barrel before gradually declining.

Extreme Scenario (Taiwan Strait Blockade): A short-term surge of 40%-50%, with WTI reaching $80-100/barrel, lasting for weeks until shipping resumes or alternative supplies arrive.

Conclusion:

The international crude oil market continues its strong performance, with Brent and WTI crude oil rising for the third consecutive day, both reaching their highest levels since the end of September last year. The current market is driven by both geopolitical risk premiums and short-term supply disruptions, leading to increased price volatility. This article will analyze the core logic of the current market movement and use multi-period technical charts to outline key price levels and potential paths. Over the past week, oil prices have risen by approximately 5%, with the fundamentals presenting a complex situation of intertwined bullish and bearish factors.

The current market rise is mainly based on two short-term drivers:

1. Geopolitical Risks: Escalating tensions between the US and Iran have triggered market concerns about supply disruptions in key oil-producing regions. Iran's daily production of approximately 3.2 million barrels and exports of 1.5 million barrels, along with the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route, hangs like a "Sword of Damocles" over the market. Leading analysts consider this the most immediate supply concern, injecting an additional risk premium of $3-4 per barrel into oil prices.

2. Short-term supply disruptions and inventories: Temporary disruptions to US crude oil production caused by the North American winter storm "Fern" and unexpected production cuts in Kazakhstan's oil fields have tightened short-term supply. The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week, contrary to market expectations of growth, temporarily alleviating concerns about oversupply.

However, it is worth noting that if the geopolitical situation does not escalate further, market attention may return to macroeconomic and supply-demand fundamentals. At that time, bearish factors may regain dominance.

Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week:

Monday (February 2nd): Eurozone January SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final; UK January SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final; US January ISM Manufacturing PMI; Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from January Monetary Policy Meeting Committee Members

Tuesday (February 3rd): Australia's ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending February 1st; US December Durable Goods Orders (MoM, revised) (%); US December Factory Orders (MoM) (%); US December JOLTs Job Openings (thousands); Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBA Governor Bullock holds monetary policy press conference

Wednesday (February 4th): Australia's December AIG Manufacturing Performance Index; Eurozone January Harmonized CPI YoY - Unadjusted Preliminary (%) (%); UK January SPGI Services PMI Final; Eurozone January Harmonized CPI YoY - Unadjusted Preliminary (%) (%); US January ADP Employment Change (thousands); US January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Thursday (February 5): Australia January Goods and Services Trade Balance (AUD billion); Eurozone December Retail Sales MoM (%); Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Meeting Minutes and Monetary Policy Report; European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision; ECB President Lagarde Holds Monetary Policy Press Conference

Friday (February 6): US January Non-Farm Payrolls (Seasonally Adjusted) (thousands); US January Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%); US January Unemployment Rate (%); US February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary)

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