Dollar Index

The dollar index fell to a low of 99.22 on Thursday, dragged down by weak U.S. economic data and new trade uncertainties. Rising weekly unemployment claims and confirmation that the U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter heightened concerns about slowing growth. In addition, initial optimism about a U.S. court ruling blocking much of Donald Trump's global tariffs faded as doubts about their long-term impact began to grow. The White House has said it will appeal the trade court's ruling, adding uncertainty to investors already dealing with inflation and policy risks. Analysts say the administration may still find other ways to implement its trade agenda, but the court's ruling has shaken market confidence. With global trade tensions unresolved and doubts about economic strength growing, traders have become more cautious.

The dollar index is now trading some distance away from the multi-month low of 97.91 set in April and once again above 100.00. Technical charts show that risks are still biased to the downside. The index is trading below the medium/long simple moving averages, including: 100.97 for the 50-day, and 103.87 for the 100-day. However, the 5-day simple moving average provides short-term support at around 99.50. If the US dollar index continues to break above 100.55 {Thursday's high}, it will expose the 100.97 {50-day simple moving average}, and the 101.00 round mark area. On the other hand, if there is a bearish breakout, it will expose the 99.22 {Thursday's low}, and the 99.00 {round mark} area. The next level is 98.70 {Monday's low}.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 99.48, stop loss: 99.60, target: 99.00, 98.90

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil fell to $60.60 per barrel on Thursday, affected by weak US economic data and concerns about increased global supply. A U.S. report showed an economic contraction in early 2025, raising concerns about slowing fuel demand. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan said OPEC+ may increase production at its meeting on Saturday, although the increase has not yet been determined. Adding to demand concerns, the head of the International Energy Agency said China's oil consumption remains weak. On the supply side, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.8 million barrels last week. Meanwhile, the eastern Libyan government may stop oil exports after a militant group attacked its national oil company, while wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have forced evacuations and stopped some oil production, threatening to exceed 200,000 barrels per day.

From the technical trend this week, WTI crude oil may retest the resistance level of $64.04 per barrel {April 21 high}, and the continuation of the trend may take the form of consolidation in the range of $60.10 {this week's low} to $63.20 {55-day simple moving average}. A break above $63.20 would be seen as the first warning, indicating that consolidation may be much more complicated than expected. It may develop towards $64.04 {April 21 high}, and further towards $65.97 {89 SMA}, and $66.00 {market psychological barrier}. A break below $61.55 {9-day SMA} would indicate a continuation of the downtrend to the $60 {market psychological barrier} support level, and a break below that could lead to a fall back to the April 10 low of $58.37 area.

Today, consider going long on crude oil around 60.40, stop loss: 60.20; target: 61.80; 62.00

Spot gold

Gold prices fell more than 1% in early trading on Thursday, falling to around $3,45.50 per ounce, marking the third consecutive day of decline. Subsequently, it was difficult to continue its intraday rebound from a one-week low in the first half of the European trading session, re-crossing the $3,300 mark, and falling for the fourth consecutive day. Global risk sentiment received a strong boost from the federal court ruling against US President Trump's "Liberation Day" trade tariffs. This continues to put pressure on the safe-haven metal, especially after the release of the hawkish FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's May meeting showed that policymakers are taking a wait-and-see approach to assess the economic impact of recent policy moves, including the now blocked mutual tariffs. Separately, US gold exports to Switzerland surged in April after the removal of tariffs on precious metals, adding a new dynamic to global gold flows.

Over the past four trading sessions, gold prices have consolidated near $3,300 in a range of $3,244.20 {45-day simple moving average} to $3,366 {last week's high}, with bullish momentum seemingly fading for technical reasons. The momentum measured by the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, is heading towards the 50 neutral line, which, if broken, could lead to a downward trend in gold prices. To continue the upward trend, the bulls must effectively and steadily break above $3,300 {round mark}, if achieved, the next target for gold will be $3,330 {Thursday high}. A breakout points to the $3,366 {last week's high} level. On the downside, gold falling below $3245.50 {Thursday low}, and $3,244.50 (45-day simple moving average}, may expose the $3,204 {May 20 daily low}, and $3,200 {market psychological mark} area levels.

Today, consider going long on gold before 3,313, stop loss: 3,310; target: 3,330; 3,335

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar hovered around $0.6440 on Thursday, holding onto its recent losses as a stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on the pair. The dollar rose after a U.S. federal court ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority in imposing reciprocal tariffs, ruling that the measures should be reversed and permanently blocked. While the Trump administration is expected to appeal, the ruling represents a major setback for the president’s trade agenda. Domestically, Australia’s monthly CPI reading for April came in higher than expected, raising questions about inflationary pressures. Despite this, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to continue easing monetary policy, following last week’s 25 basis point rate cut. Easing global tariff risks could also affect the central bank’s outlook for future rate adjustments.

AUD/USD traded around 0.6430-0.6440 on Thursday, with a bullish bias. Weakened. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair has broken below the lower line of the ascending channel. Short-term exchange rate momentum has also weakened as the pair remains below the 5-day simple moving average of 0.6460. While the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains at 50 levels, indicating that a neutral bias is in play. AUD/USD may try to regain its position to remain within the ascending channel and test the 0.6460 resistance level of the 5-day simple moving average, followed by the 0.6500 level of the round mark. On the downside, 0.6400 {round mark} appears to be an initial support level. A break below this level may weaken medium-term price momentum and exert downward pressure on the pair, causing it to hover around the 50-day simple moving average at 0.6352.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6430, stop loss: 0.6420, target: 0.6480, 0.6490

GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades around $1.3490 as the dollar weakens again, although it remains close to a three-year high of more than $1.3593 reached on May 26. The pound is under pressure from a rebound in the dollar, which is driven by strong U.S. consumer confidence and trade deal optimism. Despite the decline, sentiment towards the UK economy has improved. The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the UK to 1.2% from 1.1% in 2025, but also warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves to stick to her fiscal rules as the June 11 spending review is approaching. Meanwhile, inflation remains persistent. Grocery prices rose 4.1% year-on-year in May, the highest since February 2024, according to Kantar, prompting consumers to seek discounts and cheaper brands. As a result, traders expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by only about 40 basis points by the end of the year.

GBP/USD remains in a bearish downtrend, with buying sinking to 1.3400{round mark}, and 14-day simple moving average at 1.3386 area. However, the price action remains firmly in bullish territory, with the daily chart well above the 34-day simple moving average, which is around 1.3339, and the 1.3300{round mark} area. Overall, the British pound has performed strongly in 2025, rising 11.3% since the multi-month low of 1.2100 in mid-January. The first resistance level on the upside for GBP/USD is 1.3500{market psychological mark}. The next level will point to the 1.3592{3-year high} level.

Today, it is recommended to go long GBP before 1.3454, stop loss: 1.3440, target: 1.3510, 1.3520

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair retreated to around 144.00 during Thursday's European trading session, after encountering strong resistance above 146.00. The dollar retreated as investors reassessed the consequences of a U.S. court ruling overturning President Trump's tariff policy, causing the pair to give up early gains. However, the White House has appealed the ruling. The yen moved away from two-week lows against the U.S. dollar early on Thursday. Bets on another Bank of Japan rate hike provided some support to the yen as investors digested a federal court ruling against U.S. President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" trade tariffs. In addition to this, some intraday selling of the dollar near a one-and-a-half-week high also prompted a sharp correction in USD/JPY from levels above 146.00 to the 144 front. Meanwhile, the exchange Traders are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed will further support economic growth and reduce borrowing costs in 2025. This is a clear divergence from the hawkish Bank of Japan's expectations and could further benefit the low-yielding yen.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has stalled near 144.00 after a recent pullback from the monthly high of 148.54, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart has just begun to gain positive momentum, supporting the continuation of the USD/JPY rally. Therefore, any pullback below the 144.00 or 143.50 psychological levels can be seen as buying opportunities. A break below would negate the positive outlook in the near term and head towards 143.24 {61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 139.89 to 148.65}, and 142.11 {Tuesday low}. On the other hand, USD/JPY bulls may wait for continued strength and confirmation above the 145.00 mark before making new bets. Spot prices may accelerate towards the intermediate resistance of 146.60-146.50 and reach the next relevant resistance near the 147.00 round mark and 147.60 supply zone.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 144.40, stop loss: 144.60; target: 143.30, 143.10

EUR/USD

The euro reversed earlier losses and climbed back above $1.1350 as the dollar weakened on the latest economic data that reinforced expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. U.S. GDP fell 0.2% in the first quarter at an annualized rate, slightly better than the initial 0.3% decline. However, consumer spending growth slowed, net trade dragged on the economy more than previously estimated, and corporate profits fell in the quarter. Meanwhile, the U.S. International Trade Tribunal overturned President Donald Trump's global reciprocal tariffs and ordered the government to stop imposing them. The ruling eased investor concerns about an escalation in the trade war. On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank will announce its policy decision next week. Although many analysts expect another rate cut, some ECB officials have recently taken a more hawkish stance, advocating a pause in further easing.

From the daily chart, The uptrend in EUR/USD may have paused as the pair has temporarily failed to break the 1.1400 mark, opening the door for a pullback, with sellers targeting the dynamic support levels of 1.1200 {round number}, and 1.1210 {Thursday's low], followed by 1.1173, the 50-day simple moving average. However, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator has now retreated to the 52 level. Although buyers seem to have lost some momentum, sellers need to break the 60-day low of 1.1124 to declare the uptrend in doubt, opening the door for a deeper pullback. On the upside, EUR/USD can resume its uptrend, and a daily close above the 1.1350 mark could pave the way for a test of the 1.1400 {round number} and the May 27 high of 1.1407 area. The next level will point to the 1.1442 {April 23 high} level.

Today, it is recommended to go long on EUR before 1.1355 with a stop loss : 1.1343 Target: 1.1410 , 1.1420

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