Dollar Index

The dollar weakened on Monday as markets opened a busy week shrouded by skepticism about U.S. trade policy. While U.S. officials hinted at ongoing negotiations with Asian partners and "daily dialogue" with China, Beijing reiterated that it was not involved in the talks, stressing that there are no winners in the tariff war. Against this backdrop, the dollar index slipped to around 98.94 in writing. Investors positioned themselves ahead of key economic reports that could reveal the early impact of President Trump's tariffs. Markets are closely watching the April jobs report on Friday, as well as first-quarter GDP data and the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE inflation measure on Wednesday. If the data is lower than expected, it could strengthen market expectations of an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Last week, Trump expressed his willingness to ease tariff measures on China, a move that supported the dollar.

The dollar index traded around 99.65, on a solid footing, but the daily chart shows that the technical outlook remains fragile. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is around 38.50, and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) shows that upside momentum is fading. Although the MACD continues to send a sell signal, the average directional index (ADX) is 54.53, indicating a strong but likely weak trend. The short-term and long-term moving averages reinforce the bearish stance. Immediate support is at the 98.50 mark. A break below will retest the 98.00 {market barrier}, and 97.91 {three-year low} area. On the upside, resistance is at last week's high of 99.94, and 100.00 {market psychological resistance}, with additional resistance at 100.70 {April 10 low} and 100.82 {20-day simple moving average}.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 99.10, stop loss: 99.20, target: 98.60, 98.50

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand.

WTI crude oil plunged more than 2% on Monday, falling below $62 a barrel, as tariff-driven growth concerns threatened fuel consumption and supply surged. OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to increase production by about 411,000 barrels per day in May, offsetting most of last year's production cuts, while US shale oil production remained near a record 13.5 million barrels per day amid rising drilling numbers. Discounted crude oil from Iran and Russia further swelled Asian inventories, exacerbating oversupply. Although President Trump's recent tariff concessions and Beijing's selective exemptions, as well as exploratory nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have eased concerns about a trade war, they have done little to absorb this excess supply. Meanwhile, senior Trump administration officials urged Russia and Ukraine to advance peace talks after Trump held a one-on-one meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Although the current oil price trend shows signs of a short-term recovery, the core risk factors have not been lifted. The upside of oil prices will be limited. On the technical level, US crude oil rebounded to the central axis of the "upward channel" of the daily chart, $64.20, and $64.55 {25-day moving average} area, but the breakthrough momentum is insufficient. At the same time, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is still in the short range {46.00}. Before the trend is reversed, beware of a second decline. Pay attention to last week's low of $61.40 during the day, and see if the short-selling pressure at the next level to $60.00 {market psychological barrier} is effective. The 5-day moving average rose above the 10-day moving average to form a bullish pattern, and it is expected that oil prices may have begun to form a bottom and may make a larger rebound process. The current support and resistance level is expected to lay the foundation for the move to last week's high of $64.70. A break above this level may open the way to $65.25 (34-day simple moving average).

Today, consider going long on crude oil around 61.22, stop loss: 61.00; target: 62.60; 62.80

Spot gold

Gold prices reversed early losses and rose to about $3,353 an ounce on Monday, supported by bargain hunting and cautious attitudes ahead of key US economic data and US-China trade developments. Gold prices soared to a record $3,500.05 last week, still boosted by ongoing political and financial uncertainties. Despite President Trump's claims of progress in trade talks with China, Beijing denied that negotiations were ongoing and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant did not support Trump's claims. The ongoing tensions help maintain demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. The focus now turns to the release of several important U.S. economic data this week, including the first quarter GDP preliminary estimate, March PCE inflation data, and April non-farm payrolls report. These data are expected to provide new clues on the strength of the economy and the Fed's next move.

From a technical perspective, short traders need to wait for confirmation of acceptance below $3,293.60 {38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $2,956.80 to $3,500.10} of the latest upward phase, or the monthly swing low of $2,260, before making new bets. Subsequent selling below the immediate support of $3,265-32,60 will confirm the breakout and make the gold price vulnerable to a recent corrective decline that extends from the psychological $3,500 level or the all-time high. The subsequent decline could drag the precious metal to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, around the $3228.50 area, heading towards the $3,200 mark. A break above the latter would indicate that the commodity has peaked in the short term. On the other hand, attempts to recover above the $3,331-3,332 zone may face some resistance near the $3,350-3,353 highs. Any further gains may still be seen as selling opportunities and are limited near the $3,366-3,368 supply zone. The latter should serve as a key turning point, and if broken clearly, gold prices will recapture the $3,400 mark.

Consider going long on gold before $3,338 today, stop loss: 3,335; target: 3,365; 3,370

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rebounded on Monday. AUD/USD rose on a weaker U.S. dollar, accompanied by signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and China. According to business sources, China exempted certain U.S. imports from 125% tariffs on Friday. The move has fueled hopes that the long-running trade war between the world's two largest economies may be nearing an end. However, Reuters quoted a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday as firmly denying any current negotiations with the United States, saying "there are no consultations or negotiations on any tariffs between China and the United States." The spokesperson called on Washington to "stop creating chaos." Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in May also put pressure on the Australian dollar as economic uncertainty deepens and concerns about the global trade environment intensify.

AUD/USD traded near 0.6400 on Monday, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart technical indicator firmly above 60, showing a bullish bias, indicating continued upward momentum. The pair continues to hold above the 14-day simple moving average of 0.6343. On the upside, the recent four-month high of 0.6439 (April 22) is seen as the first resistance level, while 0.6462 {200-day moving average} is seen as the second resistance area. A break above this level could pave the way for a rebound towards the five-month high of 0.6515. Initial support is at 0.6343 of the 14-day simple moving average, and 0.6344 {low of April 24}. A sustained break below these levels will weaken the bullish pattern and may lead to deeper losses, with the psychological level of 0.6300 emerging.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6416, stop loss: 0.6405, target: 0.6460, 0.6470

GBP/USD

The pound started the week well and is expected to end April strongly. As the dollar continued to weaken and risk appetite improved, the pound rose to trade above 1.3400 after rebounding from the daily low of 1.3279. The GBP/USD pair started the new week with a sluggish attitude in the Asian session, fluctuating in a narrow range around the 1.3300 round mark. The US dollar maintained its gains from the rebound from multi-year lows last week due to uncertainty about the US-China trade negotiations, which is seen as a major resistance factor for the GBP/USD pair. This dampened optimism over Trump’s claims that tariff talks with China are ongoing and supported the dollar’s ​​relative safe-haven status. On the other hand, the pound was supported by upbeat domestic data released last Friday and hopes that the UK will soon reach a trade deal with the US. In contrast, traders have begun pricing in the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and expect at least three rate cuts by the end of the year. This, coupled with concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s trade policies, dampened further bets on dollar bulls and provided some support to the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD stabilized around 1.3310 during Monday’s Asian trading session, following losses recorded in the previous session. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a weakening bullish trend as the pair broke below its ascending channel pattern. However, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade above the 9-day simple moving average of 1.3302, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. Moreover, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains above 60, further supporting the bullish bias. On the upside, GBP/USD moved above the psychological 1.3400 level, followed by 1.3434 - a level not seen since September 2024 and the lowest since March 2022. Then there is 1.3500, a break below the ascending channel pattern weakens the bullish bias, exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair towards the recent support of the 14-day simple moving average at 1.3215. A decisive break below this level could weaken the short-term bullish momentum, with 1.3200 acting as the next key support.

Today's recommendation is to go long GBP before 1.3420, stop loss: 1.3410, target: 1.3470, 1.3480

USD/JPY

USD/JPY faced heavy selling pressure, sliding to the 142.00 area during Monday's North American trading session. As broader trade optimism waned, investor caution resurfaced, driving demand towards the safe-haven yen. A temporary rebound in risk sentiment last week had pushed USD/JPY back to around 144.00, but the yen's return to strength at the start of this week came ahead of key domestic and US events. Japanese markets were closed for Showa Day, but market focus was firmly on the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, where policymakers are expected to maintain interest rates at 0.50%. However, Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food surged 3.4% year-on-year in March, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures could push the Bank of Japan closer to tightening policy later this year. Meanwhile, the dollar struggled amid stalled trade talks. Despite Finance Minister Bessant's comments on potential progress with Asian countries and hopes for a detente with China, China firmly denied any ongoing negotiations, stressing that mutual respect is of utmost importance.

On the 4-hour chart, a sustained break above the 100 hourly SMA (143.60) will be seen as a key trigger for USD/JPY bulls, in the context of last week’s breakout above 142.56 {23.6% Fibonacci retracement from 151.21 to 139.89}. Hence, any subsequent strong breakout above the 144.00 level is likely to face stiff resistance around the 144.35 area, or 144.21 {38.2% Fibonacci retracement} level. However, follow-through buying should pave the way for a significant upside in the near term. On the other hand, any further declines may continue to attract some dip buying around the 142.00 {round number}. This should help limit downside around the 141.50 support area. However, a successful breakout above the latter, leading to a breakout above the 141.00 round number, could see the USD/JPY pair weaken further towards the mid-140.00 region. The downside trajectory could extend further to the intermediate support in the 140.50 area and expose a multi-month low below the 140.00 psychological level hit last week.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 142.25, stop loss: 142.50; target: 141.20, 141.10

EUR/USD

After rising in Monday's trading, the euro/dollar traded steadily around 1.1360 during the Asian session on Monday. The US dollar remained stable as traders were confused by mixed signals in the US-China trade relationship. Although US President Donald Trump claimed that progress had been made and spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing denied that trade negotiations were ongoing, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant did not announce on Sunday that tariff talks were ongoing. So far in April, the euro has risen by more than 5% against the US dollar, as investors increasingly question the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system and turn their attention to the common currency as an alternative. Meanwhile, dovish expectations around the European Central Bank are intensifying as concerns grow that eurozone inflation could fall below the ECB's 2% target. This week, the focus will turn to inflation data from the eurozone and the United States, as well as the much-anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday. This week, the focus will turn to inflation data from the eurozone and the United States, as well as the much-anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

Technically, the constructive outlook for EUR/USD remains as the pair consolidates above the key 100-day exponential moving average on the daily chart. Upward momentum is supported by the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), which is above its mid-line around 64.00, indicating bullish momentum in the short term. The first upside target for the major pair above the psychological 1.1400 level

comes at 1.1500 {round number}. A continued rise could see a move to 1.1547, the April 22 high. On the other hand, the initial support for EUR/USD is around 1.1315, the low of April 24, and 1.1300{round mark}. If it continues to trade below the above levels, it may fall to 1.1264 {April 15 low}, and open the door to 1.1204{20-day moving average} for a corrective decline.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.1405, stop loss: 1.1388 target: 1.1460, 1.1470.

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