US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index plunged to fluctuate around 103.35 as US President Trump implements reciprocal tariffs around the world, with details yet to be announced. With US Treasury yields rising more than seven basis points to 4.230%, the US Dollar Index fell below 104.00 in Wednesday's trading session as people were more cautious before the White House officially announced the tariffs. The US dollar remained under pressure despite stronger-than-expected ADP employment change data in March. Technical signals are mixed with some indicators indicating bullish attempts, while long-term moving averages are biased towards bearishness. The US Dollar Index revisited the low of the year around 103.35 area this week, showing little directional bias after a series of weak US economic data releases. Due to conflicting statements around the scope, size and duration of the government's proposed trade measures, investors are cutting risk exposure in the foreign exchange market and waiting for details to be announced. In the current environment, investors believe that the Japanese yen is safer than the US dollar as US tariffs may also hurt the US economy.

The US Dollar Index sees other asset classes preparing for the "Liberation Day" scheduled for 19:00 GMT on Wednesday. The US dollar was once again indifferent to the announcement, while investors have high hopes that the US dollar index may finally move up or down in this data-heavy week. Moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) still signals a potential bullish crossover in the next few days, and a return to the 104.00 round number level is still possible. Once this area is broken, a series of key levels such as 104.38 (25-day EMA) and 104.71 (March 27 high) may limit the upside momentum. On the downside, the 103.32 (March 20 low) level is the first nearby support, although it does not look promising after being tested last Friday and this Monday. If this level cannot be maintained, the US dollar index has the potential to fall back to the March range between 104.00 and 103.00. Once the lower limit of 103.00 is broken, note that the key support below will point to the level of 102.53 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 100.16 to 110.18).

Today, you can consider shorting the US dollar index around 104.00, stop loss: 104.20, target: 103.50, 103.40

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. WTI crude oil fell to around 70.50 as US President Trump implemented reciprocal tariffs worldwide, and the specific details are yet to be announced. On Wednesday (April 2), international oil prices fell as US President Trump was about to announce the reciprocal tariff plan. The market is generally worried that this move will increase investment uncertainty, increase the risk of a global trade war, and may suppress crude oil demand. WTI remained below $71, and the market generally reduced its exposure before the announcement of Trump's tariff policy, waiting for the final decision. The market temporarily stepped on the brakes, and traders are reducing their risk exposure to cope with market volatility after the policy was announced. A White House spokesman said that Trump's tariff measures will consider a variety of options, including setting fixed tariffs for different countries, or adopting a more flexible "reciprocal" tariff system, but the final version is still uncertain. Market uncertainty comes not only from tariff policies, but also from potential sanctions on Russian and Iranian supplies and the impact of OPEC+ production increases. As of last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories also increased by 2.2 million barrels, the largest increase since January 2023. If official data confirms this trend, it may further suppress oil prices.

Although concerns about demand remain, a technical breakout above the key moving averages on the daily chart, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive zone near 59.60, suggests that oil prices may climb further, coupled with escalating geopolitical risks and localized supply disruptions, which tilt the balance of the crude oil market in the short term towards a cautiously bullish outlook. On the upside, traders should focus on the 200-day simple moving average resistance around $72.14, and a breakout towards the $73.00 (round mark), and $73.10 (February 20 high) area. On the other hand, any pullback may find support in the psychological $70.00 mark, and the breakout range near $69.98 (50-day simple moving average). Then the $68.65 (early week low) level.

Consider going long on crude oil near 70.20 today, stop loss: 70.00; target: 71.80; 71.90

Spot gold

Gold prices plunged and fluctuated between $3,100 and $3,135 as U.S. President Donald Trump implemented reciprocal tariffs around the world, with details yet to be announced. U.S. Treasury yields rose more than seven basis points to 4.230%

U.S. President Trump announced that the United States will impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a 25% tariff on automobiles. These tariffs will take effect on April 3. As Trump revealed some details, gold prices fluctuated in the $3,100 to $3,135 area. Gold prices retreated on profit-taking on Tuesday, but still hit a record high of 3,149; Gold prices retreated on profit-taking, but still hit a record high of 3,149; Gold prices retreated on profit-taking, but still hit a record high. It is not surprising to see a bit of profit-taking ahead of US President Trump’s plan to announce sweeping tariffs on countries with which the US has a trade imbalance, especially considering that the market has become quite overbought and there is no change in the fundamentals. This is a perfect storm for gold. Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

From a technical perspective, the pullback from the all-time high of $3,149 on Tuesday stalled near $3,100 and the subsequent upward move favors bullish traders. Nonetheless, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is well above 70, indicating overbought conditions, so it would be wise to wait for some short-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for further gains. However, a constructive positioning suggests that the path of least resistance for gold prices remains to the upside. Meanwhile, $3,100 (round number), and $3,099 (5-day moving average) are likely to continue to protect the immediate downside and serve as key turning points. However, a breakout could prompt some longs to liquidate and drag gold to the $3,076 area, or the weekly low hit on Monday, and further extend towards the March 20 high-turned-support resistance of $3,057. The downside trajectory could extend further to the psychological $3,000 mark, which should act as a strong support for gold. Further strength would see gold break above $3,149, challenging the current all-time high and potentially $3,200.

Consider going long on gold today before 3,130, stop loss: 3,125; target: 3,150.00; 3.155.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD added to Tuesday's bullish sentiment and surpassed the key 0.6300 mark as the dollar weakened further following President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs. It then retreated to a low of around 0.6260. During the early Asian session on Wednesday, the AUD/USD pair rebounded to trade smoothly around just above 0.6300. The market turned cautious ahead of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump. Trump plans to implement tariffs on US trading partners on Wednesday, with the possibility of imposing more tariffs on Chinese goods. Since taking office in January, Trump has imposed a 20% tariff on all Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of failing to do enough to curb the flow of chemicals used to make the deadly drug fentanyl into the United States. A potential trade war between the United States and China could put some selling pressure on the Australian dollar, as China is Australia's main trading partner. At the same time, encouraging Chinese economic data provided some support for the Australian dollar, which is a proxy for China.

From a technical perspective, although the AUD/USD pair rebounded sharply to just above 0.6300 in the middle of the week after President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, its rebound was still limited by a series of resistance levels. The MACD histogram continues to show new red bars, indicating that downward momentum remains, while the 14-day relative strength index, a technical indicator on the daily chart, has rebounded just around the 50 midpoint, showing a slight improvement in bullish power. Currently, the pair is still trapped between 0.6348 (115-day moving average) and 0.6377 (March 19 high) and cannot break out clearly for the time being. Several key moving averages - 20-day; 100-day; and 200-day simple moving averages are pointing down, emphasizing the continued bearish bias. Immediate support is around 0.6232 (Tuesday's low high), and extends to the lower limit of the triangle pattern at 0.6225 and 0.6200 (round numbers).

Today, consider going long on AUD before 0.6250, stop loss: 0.6235; target: 0.6300; 0.6310.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is gaining speed to challenge key highs around 1.3000 as US President Trump imposes reciprocal tariffs around the world, details of which are yet to be announced. The US dollar has fallen sharply again, with GBP/USD trading in a rebound zone around the upper 1.2950 support area, with little change, as traders eagerly await US President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement before placing new directional bets. Meanwhile, investors chose to stay on the sidelines as the risk of a global trade war intensifies, especially after Trump dampened expectations that tariffs would be limited to a few countries with trade imbalances. The UK is expected to be affected by new US tariffs, suggesting that a deal to exempt UK goods will not be reached in time. This in turn is seen as a headwind for the British pound and the GBP/USD pair. However, despite this, the dollar's downside seems to be somewhat supported by expectations that the slowdown in US economic activity due to tariffs may force the Federal Reserve to resume the rate cutting cycle soon. On the other hand, the British pound may be supported by expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates slower than other central banks, including the Federal Reserve. This may further limit the downside of the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD has entered a solid consolidation phase around the 1.3000 mark. GBP traders remain reluctant to push higher, while USD inflows also dominate most of the market. However, short pressure on GBP also remains limited. The bullish trend line since the deep low of 1.2099 on January 13 remains intact and momentum remains in favor of buyers, with the pair fluctuating above the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2807. The uptrend in GBP/USD remains intact, although the pair will consolidate in the short term. Buyers need to break above the March 31 high of 1.2972 to test the chances of a break above the 1.30 psychological level. If broken, the next targets will be the November 7 high of 1.3048, and the 1.3100 mark. On the other hand, if sellers push the exchange rate below 1.2900, the next support will be the March 27 low of 1.2865, followed by the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2807.

Today, we suggest going long GBP before 1.2970, stop loss: 1.2955, target: 1.3040, 1.3050

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fluctuated as US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on Liberation Day, which will take effect on April 3. The pair was seen trading around 148.75 after Trump's speech. US President Donald Trump announced that the US will impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a 25% tariff on automobiles. These tariffs will take effect on April 3. USD/JPY initially broke through the 150.00 mark before Trump showed a chart of tariffs on other countries. Afterwards, USD/JPY plunged more than 35 pips as traders seeking safety bought the yen. The yen failed to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains against the US dollar during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, instead attracting fresh selling. However, USD/JPY remains confined to the range it has been in since the beginning of the week, and traders are still waiting for a new catalyst before positioning for the next directional move. As such, market attention will be focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement later today. Meanwhile, speculation that a tariff-driven economic slowdown may force the Bank of Japan to keep its policy unchanged for now has weakened the yen. However, investors appear confident that the Bank of Japan will continue to hike rates as signs of inflation are expanding in Japan. This is a stark divergence from the market’s growing acceptance that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June, which should help support the low-yielding yen.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has shown resilience below the 50-day simple moving average of 150.93 since the beginning of this week. Subsequent gains may favor bullish traders, although neutral oscillators require some caution. Meanwhile, the weekly high around the 150.28 area may act as an immediate barrier. A sustained strong breakout could push USD/JPY to the 50-day simple moving average of 150.93, and close to the 151.00 mark. Next up is the March monthly high, around the 151.30 area, and the technically important 200-day simple moving average, currently around 151.45, a break of which could see the spot price retake the 152.00 mark. On the other hand, the March 20 low of 148.18 and 148.00 (round numbers) are the first support areas, followed by the 148.18 (March 20 low), and the 148.00 (market psychological level) area that could provide support for USD/JPY. However, a break below this would be seen as a new trigger for bearish traders and make the spot price vulnerable to resuming the clear downtrend seen over the past three months or so to 147.41 (March 13 low).

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 149.00, stop loss: 149.30; target: 148.10, 148.00

EUR/USD

EUR/USD surged late Wednesday, hitting a three-week high of 1.0924, after sentiment reacted positively to the Trump administration’s announcement of better-than-expected tariff levels. U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to impose a 10% general tariff on all goods imported into the United States gave investors what they initially thought they wanted. Further details on the tariffs revealed a significant increase in reciprocal tariffs, as well as an additional 25% tariff on all imported cars. The Trump administration also chose to apply some reciprocal tariff rates on a country-by-country basis, adding significant complexity to U.S. trade logistics. Growing concerns about the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff announcements have generally weighed on the dollar and provided support for major currency pairs. Across the Atlantic, eurozone inflation cooled last month as expected, further increasing market expectations for another rate cut from the European Central Bank in April. The preliminary reading of the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in March, compared with 2.3% in February. The reading was in line with market expectations.

EUR/USD hit a three-week high of 1.0924 mid-week before retreating sharply to 1.0800 to stabilize. Despite the slight decline, the pair remains within its intraday range. The overall price action remains neutral, with short-term weakness contrasting with broader bullish structural support. Technical indicators remain uncertain. While the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart remains above 55, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is slightly bearish, suggesting a lack of upward momentum. Bullish and bearish forces are close to zero, and the average directional index (ADX) is 25.7, which also indicates a non-trending environment. These mixed signals reflect the current sideways state of the pair. Among the moving averages, 1.0858 (March 24 high) provides immediate overhead resistance, and the next level points to 1.0900 (round mark), and 1.0924 (Wednesday high). Strengthening the short-term bearish bias. However, looking ahead, key support levels are at 1.0728 (200-day moving average), and 1.0700 (round number).

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0800, stop loss: 1.0785, target: 1.0860, 1.0870.

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